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Choose Your Buyer

Example of a Decision Record

Northstar Studio

A look at how evidence is translated into a clear focus decision, assumptions to test, and the next commercial move.

The decision we are making

Which buyer and buying situation currently deserves deliberate focus if the founder wants to stop treating every possible project as equally valuable?

Northstar Studio is a founder-led B2B marketing and creative studio. It has already made sales through brand and website projects, campaign work and ongoing marketing support.

The question is no longer whether anyone will pay. The founder is trying to work out which opportunities deserve more deliberate time, outreach and investment as she tries to grow.

"I know we can do the work. I'm just tired of every month feeling like we're starting from zero again. One month we have three enquiries, then nothing. I don't know whether I should be chasing bigger clients, pushing retainers harder or just doing more of what has already brought work in."
Founder voice, part of this example.

What the small amount of evidence is telling us

Northstar has worked with 10 paying clients in the last 12 months. The data is still small, so we are not calling this a proven market. But one early pattern deserves testing.

Six clients were small founder-led businesses. Most bought one-off projects. Several negotiated heavily on price, and only one returned for further work.

Four clients were established SMEs. Three came in when something specific had changed inside the business: a new market launch, a repositioning exercise or pressure to generate more qualified leads. Three of those four went on to buy further work.

The strongest signal is therefore not simply "Larger companies spend more." It is:

Northstar seems to create more commercial value when an established business has a specific growth change underway and marketing has become part of making that change work.

Our working decision

For the next 30 days, Northstar will:

Test established SMEs going through a visible growth or market-change moment.

This is not a permanent niche decision. It is the direction that has currently earned the right to be tested more deliberately.

Biggest uncertainty: Access

The bet underneath that decision

Nearly all of Northstar's strongest historical clients arrived through referrals. So the real decision is not only "Are these better buyers?" It is also:

"Can Northstar reach enough of these buyers deliberately rather than waiting for someone to introduce them?"

If the answer is no, the segment may look attractive on paper but still be a poor growth focus.

What changes now

For the next month, Northstar does not:

  • rewrite the entire website for every possible buyer
  • launch three new offers
  • chase every enquiry equally
  • assume more posting is automatically the answer
  • abandon good referral work that still comes in

Instead, the founder has one commercial question to investigate:

Can we deliberately create serious conversations with SMEs already experiencing the kind of change that has previously led to stronger work?

Decision summary

We are focusing on
Established SMEs experiencing a visible growth or market-change moment.
Because
The strongest existing evidence combines an identifiable buying situation, stronger commercial value and early signs of further work.
We are not claiming
That this is Northstar's permanent niche or that the market has already been proven.
The biggest unknown
Whether Northstar can deliberately access enough of these buyers without depending on referrals.
The next move
Run a focused 30-day commercial test.
What will tell us what to do next
Continue / Adjust / Drop based on actual buying behaviour.
See the evidence behind the decision

What has happened so far

Smaller founder-led clients

  • 6 paying clients
  • primarily project-based
  • most came through referrals
  • frequent price sensitivity
  • 1 repeat purchase
  • some enquiries disappeared after pricing

Established SMEs

  • 4 paying clients
  • 3 bought during a specific growth or change situation
  • 3 purchased further work
  • engagements tended to be broader
  • less evidence of price being the main obstacle

The founder's interpretation before Choose Your Buyer

"I thought I probably needed more leads. Then I wondered whether I needed to push retainers. Then I started thinking maybe I needed to niche down. Every answer seemed to create another thing I should be doing."
Founder voice, part of this example.

What the evidence changes

Northstar does not yet have evidence that it simply needs more leads. It has early evidence that some situations produce more valuable buying behaviour than others. That changes what deserves investigation first.

What we are not concluding

We are not saying:

  • established SMEs are definitely Northstar's long-term market
  • retainers are automatically the best business model
  • smaller founders are bad clients
  • four SME clients prove repeatable demand
  • referrals are a weak channel
  • thirty days will establish product-market fit

The current evidence is enough to justify a focused test. It is not enough to justify certainty.

Decision filters

  • UrgencyPromising

    Stronger work appeared around an active business change

  • BudgetPromising

    SME clients have shown greater capacity to buy broader work

  • RepeatabilityUnknown

    Similar situations have appeared, but only a few times

  • AccessMajor uncertainty

    Strong clients largely came through referrals

  • ProofModerate

    Northstar has relevant work but may need to package it more clearly

  • DeliveryStrong

    The studio can already deliver the work being considered

The most important thing to prove next: Access. If Northstar cannot deliberately reach these businesses, the attractive historical pattern may not translate into a usable growth strategy.

What remains uncertain

We still need to learn:

  • Which change creates the strongest urgency?
  • Who notices the problem first?
  • Who actually controls the budget?
  • Can Northstar reach these buyers without relying on introductions?
  • Does the buyer want a project first or ongoing support?
  • What evidence makes Northstar credible enough to shortlist?
  • What causes an apparently good opportunity to stall?
See how we would test the decision

The 30-day commercial test

Test question: Can Northstar deliberately create serious commercial conversations with established SMEs experiencing a visible growth or market change?

Target: Identify 12 businesses with a recent signal such as:

  • entering a new market
  • repositioning
  • launching a major offer
  • expanding the sales team
  • appointing new commercial leadership
  • visibly increasing customer acquisition activity

What Northstar will do

Over the next 30 days:

  1. Identify the relevant person involved in the growth decision.
  2. Reach out around the business situation, not with a generic "we do marketing" pitch.
  3. Investigate what changed and why it matters now.
  4. Find out how the company is currently addressing the problem.
  5. Establish who influences and approves spending.
  6. Where there is genuine fit, invite a concrete commercial next step so the test captures willingness to pay, not just interest.
  7. Record what happens after interest is expressed.

What we will watch

Not

  • likes
  • compliments
  • "this sounds interesting"
  • general enthusiasm

Instead

  • replies from relevant buyers
  • willingness to discuss an active problem
  • access to the decision-maker
  • budget conversations
  • requests for a proposal or commercial next step
  • movement from conversation towards purchase
  • payment behaviour
  • repeated buying situations

Decision gate

Continue, Adjust or Drop

All three are evidence-based decisions.

CONTINUE

Continue if the same buying situation appears repeatedly and Northstar can deliberately reach relevant buyers who show genuine commercial intent.

ADJUST

Adjust if the underlying opportunity appears real but something around the route is wrong.

Example: the need is urgent, but the founder is not the economic buyer. Marketing or commercial leadership consistently owns the decision. That would not invalidate the direction. It would change who Northstar needs to approach.

Other Adjust signals might include:

  • buyers respond but need a smaller first engagement
  • the strongest trigger is market entry rather than general growth
  • the buyer is right but Northstar lacks the proof required to reduce perceived risk
  • referral partners remain a better route than direct outbound

DROP

Stop deliberately prioritising this direction for now if:

  • the apparent urgency does not repeat
  • relevant buyers consistently acknowledge the issue but do not fund it
  • Northstar cannot create access without exceptional personal introductions
  • commercial conversations repeatedly stall for the same structural reason
  • another opportunity produces materially stronger buying evidence

Dropping the hypothesis is not a failed month. It means Northstar learned before spending another six months building around an assumption.

What the founder leaves with

Northstar does not leave with:

"SMEs are definitely my niche."

The founder leaves with:

"This is the commercial direction that currently deserves more of my attention. I know why we're testing it, what I still don't know and what evidence will tell me whether to keep going."

The aim is not certainty.

The aim is a decision strong enough to act on, with the evidence clear enough to tell you what to learn next.

Want to make this decision for your own business?

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